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TPH Energy Insight of the Week

COVID-19 has Disrupted many lives and industries. Energy is no exception. The sharp decline in demand for petroleum products has brought the oil and gas industry to its knees alongside many of the investments in the technology that supports it. Technology startups that didn’t have strong financial backing at the start of the virus outbreak are finding new funding hard to get as investors look toward safer, more established commercial technologies and projects for their investments.

Despite increased interest in renewables & alternative energy projects growing year over year – the EIA is forecasting that capital investments into energy in 2020 will be about $400b – which is about 20% lower than last year.

So with capacity additions down and the interest in renewables and alternatives increasing, I see bigger and more ambitious projects on the horizon. Perhaps just not starting or adding capacity in 2021. One reason for this is that we believe government spending capacity will decrease as governments around the world work to re-open their economies and that the subsidies used to stimulate investments in alternative energy will begin to wane.

However, the declining cost of new technologies should counteract this Disruption should it occur. More and more of these projects are increasing in size and are driving down not only the capital cost but also the ultimate cost of the energy/electricity they will produce.

The three opportunities for 2021 are increased spending for large offshore wind projects, hydrogen production for fuel cells, and electrical storage. Timing for true Inception of those opportunities will rely on existing Disruption.